Attendance Projections for the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 School Years

The Attendance Projections module in the Foundation School Program (FSP) application will open on Monday, October 17, 2022. Attendance projections are estimates of student average daily attendance (ADA), enrollment, or full-time equivalent (FTE) counts by program or instructional setting. The Texas Education Agency (TEA) develops these attendance projections and will provide them to the Legislative Budget Board by March 1, 2023. The Legislature then uses these projections to determine the cost of public education for the next biennium (school years 2023–2024 and 2024–2025).  

Methodology

The Attendance Projections module is preloaded with TEA’s projections, which are developed using historical data and growth assumptions. Historically, TEA has used a five-year growth rate to develop projections. However, due to the pandemic, growth from 2017–2018 to 2021–2022 was -0.79%. Actual 2021–2022 ADA decreased to 89.3% of enrollment, whereas in the three prior years it was 92% of enrollment. 

Growth rate: -0.79% 

Assuming this pandemic-related decline is likely not realistic and applying an overall decline each year of 0.79% would have had a large negative impact on funding, TEA used an alternative methodology. With the new methodology, LEAs are getting an increase from the 2022–2023 ADA projections, inflated (prorated based on LEAs percentage of total ADA) to reach the statewide goal of 92% ADA to enrollment ratio which is 5,008,806 ADA. In 2023–2024 and 2024–2025, the same method was applied but using a statewide goal that is a 0.31% increase from each prior year. The 0.31% was chosen because the last pre-pandemic year (2018–2019) showed a growth from 2017–2018 of 0.31%, and the enrollment 5-year growth 2017–2018 to 2021–2022 was 0.13%.  

Additionally, in the last biennium attendance projections, growth was around 0.71%; the 0.31% would continue with a trend of overall declining growth but still positive growth. TEA’s statewide attendance projections for 2023–2024 and 2024–2025 are 5,024,480 and 5,040,203. 

Please note: For the 2022-2023 ADA projections, these 2022-2023 projections will not change what is on the Summary of Finances (SOF) reports for 2022-2023, and they are solely being used as a baseline to project the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 school years. 

Next Steps (action required)

Local educational agencies (LEAs) can enter their own projections or accept TEA’s projections. LEAs should examine local factors that may result in different estimates than the pre-loaded projections, to avoid larger-than-needed settle-up issues. LEAs can enter their own projections or accept TEA’s projections. The Attendance Projection module will close at midnight on December 14, 2022. Failure to submit the required attendance projections data by the deadline will result in TEA using its own projections as part of the appropriations process for state aid calculations during the next biennium. 

Impacts

For cashflow purposes, the payments made LEAs during the upcoming biennium will be based on final attendance projections submitted to the Legislature. These ADA and FTE estimates will ultimately be shown in the Legislative Payment Estimate (LPE) column of the Summary of Finances (SOF) reports and are not subject to revision. Final earnings will, as always, be based on actual ADA and FTEs submitted to TEA at the conclusion of a school year. 

Please note: This submission impacts the 2024–2025 and 2025–2026 Financial Integrity Rating System of Texas (FIRST). FIRST Indicator 15 (Indicator 16 for charter schools) measures the difference of the LEA’s attendance projections compared to the actual ADA reported to TEA. It also measures if a LEA certified its projections. Please contact Robin Aldridge at (512) 463-3940, David Marx at (512) 463-2945, or email financialaccountability@tea.texas.gov if you have additional questions regarding FIRST. 

Technical Assistance, Resources and Contact Information

The FSP application in TEAL requires that a designated district approver, usually the superintendent, submit the attendance projections data to the TEA. If you already have a TEAL account but do not have access to the FSP application, please apply for access by clicking the My Application Accounts button found in the upper-left corner of the Self-Service menu in TEAL. If you already have access to the FSP application, please check that you have the appropriate role assigned for submitting the data. You will need to select either the role of pupil projections user or district approver (usually the superintendent). 

Your LEA’s Service Account Manager must approve all requests for access to the FSP application and modifications to access via the TEAL. (Note that Service Account Manager is a role within the TEAL system. Each employing organization must have at least one employee with a Service Account Manager status.) If you have submitted a request for access to modify access and it has not been granted, please consult with your superintendent or district approver or check with your LEA’s Service Account Manager to check the status of the request before contacting the TEA.  

For more information on the FSP System, including information on applying for specific roles in the system, please see the TEA FSP System web page. For more information on the Attendance Projections subsystem in the FSP System, please visit the Attendance Projections web page. For help with accessing the FSP application or submitting attendance projections data, please contact Thomas Heil at ADAprojections@tea.texas.gov or at 512-463-9622. 

Sincerely, 

Sara Kohn, CPA
Director, Forecasting and Fiscal Analysis / Interim Director of State Funding